The Premier League is producing chances at a rate it almost never has before, and somehow still finding ways to be stingy about the end product. The average of 2.70 non-penalty goals per game in 2026-27 is up on last season, which sounds encouraging until you look at the other number sitting next to it. Matches are averaging 2.88 non-penalty expected goals, the second highest figure in the past six seasons. There is a gap between what is happening and what should be happening, and that gap is not small. If every team had simply converted at the rate their chances deserved, we would have had nearly two extra goals every single week of the season so far. Two goals. Per week. Gone.
A Draw Rate That Should Embarrass Everyone
Start with what that waste is costing us in terms of actual results, because it is more than an abstract statistical concern. The proportion of Premier League games ending in draws is higher this season than in any previous Premier League campaign. That is not a quirk. It is a consequence. Games that should have had a decisive goal, that had the possession patterns and the chance creation to produce one, are instead ending level because somebody missed when they should not have.
Fourteen clubs have scored fewer goals than expected, up from ten last season. Only six clubs are outperforming or matching their underlying numbers. The direction of travel is clear, and it is not heading towards more entertainment. And this is not just a broad seasonal trend that smooths out over time. In the first five match weeks, there were 24 instances of a team scoring at least one goal fewer than their xG implied. That is twice as many as occurred across the opening 50 games of last season. The underperformance is happening consistently, week after week, not in occasional blips.
Fewer Touches Where It Actually Counts
If you are trying to diagnose why the finishing is off, the instinct is to look at the quality of chances being created. But that line of inquiry does not hold up. The expected goals value per non-penalty shot has barely moved. The chances being created are not noticeably worse in quality. Something else is going on.
Look closer and the penalty area data starts to become more telling. A Premier League side is averaging 24.8 touches in the opposition box per game, which sounds roughly the same as last season, and it nearly is. Down 0.6. Not alarming on its own. But when you break that figure down by club, four of last season's top five for box touches are averaging significantly fewer this time around. Aston Villa and Liverpool have both seen roughly a third of their box touch volume disappear from last season's figures. That is not a marginal dip. That is a structural change in how those teams are operating in the most dangerous areas of the pitch.
Manchester United: The Flattering Outlier
The one team from that top five quintet to actually increase their box touches is Manchester United. Before that sounds like a compliment, consider the context. United top the entire Premier League for non-penalty shots this season, and are joint-second bottom for average expected goal value per shot. They are shooting a lot and shooting poorly. Their schedule has also been notably kind: five of their eight goals came against Ipswich, who were Championship runners-up last season. The sample is not exactly battle-hardened.
What makes United's situation more complicated is the reliance on Bryan Mbeumo as their primary xG generator. Mbeumo is one of ten players across the division who have scored at least one goal fewer than their underlying numbers suggest they should have. He underperformed by 1.19 xG last season too, so it is not without precedent. The worry is less about Mbeumo specifically and more about what it says about United's attacking depth that so much expectation is funnelled through a single player. [The reliance on individuals rather than system has become a recurring theme at clubs in transition this season](/uprise/football/all-aboard-the-tuchel-train-england-camp-has-clear-winners), and United are a sharp example of it.
The Top Dog Problem
Here is where the data gets genuinely interesting, and a little uncomfortable. At almost every Premier League club, the leading player for expected goals is generating a bigger share of their team's total xG than they were last season. More of the pie is going to one person. In theory, that resolves itself as minutes and chances distribute more evenly over the course of a campaign. In practice, right now, it is creating a concentration problem.
The top players from each club have collectively scored 6.8 non-penalty goals fewer than expected this season. That represents nearly 40% of the entire division's finishing shortfall, coming from just 20 players. When the person your team relies upon most heavily has an off run, there is nobody picking up the slack. At Everton, Thierno Barry is taking 49.4% of the club's non-penalty xG this season, compared to 17.7% last term. He is 22 and new to carrying a team. He has scored twice from chances worth 3.5 xG. The numbers do not lie about the weight being placed on young shoulders. [Alexander Isak at Liverpool faces a similar kind of pressure](/uprise/football/havertz-isak-dorgu-spate-of-injuries-with-national-teams-leaves), albeit with a different context: injuries limited his minutes last season, and he is still building his share of a new system under a new manager.
The Positions That Should Never Be Carrying XG
Then there are the cases that move beyond concerning and into the territory of almost comic dysfunction. At Tottenham, the leading player for non-penalty expected goals is centre-back Jan Paul van Hecke. Read that again. A central defender is the player most involved in Spurs' chance creation by underlying numbers. Only two teams in the entire top flight have scored fewer goals than their xG than Spurs. The situation is not a blip. It is a reflection of something genuinely broken in how the club is functioning in the final third.
Fulham's leading xG contributor is Gonzalo García, who is 22 years old and new to English football. Ipswich's equivalent is Emersonn, also 22, also adapting to the Premier League for the first time. At Newcastle, Yoanne Wissa, who underperformed his xG by more than two goals last season, has stepped into Alexander Isak's vacancy. At Bournemouth, Marcus Tavernier carries a similar weight and a similar history of underperformance. These are not the profiles of players you build your attacking output around and then wonder why the goals are not coming. And at Hull, Oli McBurnie, who has never scored more than six goals in a Premier League season, is the name at the top of the xG chart.
What Comes Next
The honest answer is that some of this corrects itself. Small samples distort things. Chance distribution within squads evens out. Young players find their footing. The 12 clubs sitting meaningfully below their expected goals figures will not all finish the season there. But the combination of factors here, an over-reliance on single players who are themselves underperforming, falling box touch volumes at clubs that were dominant last year, and a draw rate at historic highs, suggests this is not purely a matter of waiting for regression to kick in.
The Premier League is generating better chances than almost any recent season. It is converting them at a rate that should not satisfy anyone who watches it. Until squads spread the load, until the Barrys and the Wissas and the van Heckes are no longer the ones carrying the xG burden, that gap between what the data says should be happening and what is actually appearing on the scoreboard is going to stay open. And we are all going to keep watching draws that should have been wins.